When Peace Talks Sound Like War

“We’re getting close to peace” is one of the most dangerous sentences in politics, especially when the next headline is about more missiles, more strikes, and more promises to hit harder. We take a hard look at how the word peace gets used today and why it can feel like a mirage, with leaders describing escalation as a “road to peace” while people keep dying on the ground.

We talk through two arenas where the language flips fast: the Ukraine Russia war and the US Iran conflict within the broader Middle East. From long range weapons and infrastructure attacks to the real world choke point of the Strait of Hormuz, we dig into what would actually need to change for stability to be more than a talking point. If ships are “about to flow,” who clears mines, who sets the rules, and who enforces them when tensions rise again?

Then we step back and ask why peacekeeping and accountability are so limited. The UN Security Council veto makes classic UN peacekeeping nearly impossible when major powers are parties to the conflict. On war crimes, we explore how the Geneva Conventions and the International Criminal Court focus on narrow standards like intent and clear humanitarian violations, which leaves huge gray zones that frustrate anyone looking for simple moral math.

We even try to quantify peace, percentage style, and the exercise exposes the real point: peace is not a binary, and propaganda thrives in the ambiguity. If this helps you think more clearly about war, diplomacy, and risk, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review. What percentage of peace do you think exists right now?

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Transcript

Steve Davenport 0:02

Hello everyone and welcome to Skeptic's Guide to Investing. This is Steve Davenport, and I'm here with my friend Clem Miller. And today we're talking about peace. War is peace, peace is war. Um, it feels a little bit strange that in the two major areas of the US, we're negotiating a peace with Russia and Ukraine,

Why Peace Feels Backward

Steve Davenport 0:26

and they're killing each other every day. And we're negotiating a peace with Iran, but the Iran hierarchy is at the funeral for their leader who was killed by us, , or the Israelis. And, you know, now we're bombing them last night, and we're promising to bomb them even harder tonight. Is peace really peace, or is peace just a word we use to describe something that we imagine is happening in these countries, Clem.

Clem Miller 0:58

So George Orwell, who wrote the book 1984, ironically, in the year 1948, right after World War II, , he coined the expression war is peace, , to refer to propaganda that was coming out of this dictator, this you know, science fiction kind of dictatorship that he envisioned

Orwell And The Propaganda Flip

Clem Miller 1:22

in 1984. And I think that's what we're seeing now is we're seeing war is peace, and everything having to do with war is being actually described as peace or the road to peace or or whatnot. You know, ceasefires aren't really ceasefires, peace agreements really aren't peace agreements. Uh it's all sort of inverted, and you can't really trust what is coming out of the mouths of people who you know who are involved in this whole thing. So, you know, obviously there are differences between what's happening in the Gulf slash Middle East and what's happening in in Eastern Europe with Ukraine and Russia. Uh but I think there is that commonality where we're not really seeing peace, we're seeing you know war and just this kind of mirage that there's some discussion about peace agreements going on. It's just a it's kind of a mirage and a and a and a deception that's going on with regard to that. But what we're really seeing is continued war with Ukraine and Russia. We're seeing

Ukraine And Iran As “Peace” Theater

Clem Miller 2:44

them bombing each other's infrastructure. Uh we see in in the Gulf. In the Gulf, we see you know, Iran does, I mean, clearly Iran wants to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz no matter what. It has effective control now and it wants to to keep that control. Uh it's very important for them, apparently, to keep control. And it looks to me as if you know, despite these little attacks that Tr p occasionally has, that he's getting a little tired of this of this war. Um, and I think his you know the Republican Party as well is is you know, cut your losses right before the election happens so that people forget about it.

Steve Davenport 3:38

The whole idea that there was going to be suddenly this peace and the ships were gonna flow through the crew, you know, through the Suez, I mean, through through the hormones for next days, like there was there's still mines to remove, there's still all these issues about how do you communicate, who authorizes the transfers through, and all of these details that I don't know, you know, the iron the one of the sadder parts of this is that I thought they were on a a hold during the funeral for the leader there, Khamenei. And the funeral lasts, I guess, until he goes back to his birthplace, and it's got another day or two to go. So in the middle of the funeral, we're starting to see this you know elevation of violence, and it just you know, is it a is it a symbolic, you know, violence because they're upset about the killing of their leader? Is it more than symbology? Is it and then we have Tr p sitting next to Zelensky and he's talking about you know providing more long-range you know missiles so that they can go deeper and deeper into Russia? And this supposedly is is is getting us close to peace. At the meeting they talk about, we're we're approaching peace. Well, if you're granting more missiles, I'm sorry, Clem, but doesn't that usually mean the missiles will be used and somebody will be blown up or hurt? I mean, I is is violence the path to peace?

Clem Miller 5:21

Well, I don't think look, you know, we've had we've had this war in Ukraine, Russian invasion was February 22nd of or 4 24th, 22nd of 2022. 24th of 2022. And that's now quite a long time ago, right? It's more than four years ago. Um pretty soon it'll be going on five years. So I don't think war has led to peace by any means. It would have done so, it would have done so earlier. And I think that , and I think that in the Gulf, I you know, at best, I think we could see some ceasefires.

Strait Of Hormuz And Escalation Logic

Clem Miller 6:05

I think a lot depends on what the Gulf states, well, what Israel is going to be doing and what the Gulf states are gonna be doing when it comes to you know the course of that war as well as you know, of course, Iran. I think Netanyahu is itching for more fight with Iran. Right. I think the Gulf states, on the other hand, are have come around to being a little bit more willing to be accommodating to Iran, to , you know, not not to roll over, right, but to be a little bit more accommodating. I think Oman is willing to seems to be willing to go along with this idea of sharing the strait, sharing the revenues from , you know, from some kind of a toll regime since they're on both sides of the strait. Uh so I think I think there's some some accommodation that's that's going on there. I think I think one of the things, and this is especially true when you think about Russia and Ukraine, is if you look back to you know quite a ways back to the Vietnam War, there were peace negotiations that happened for years and the war just kept going on. And you know, those peace negotiations they they know came out with a settlement, right? But at the end of the day, at the end of the day, South Vietnam fell. And , and so it wasn't it wasn't that the peace agreement did not work, and , and there was a defeat of the United States by by North Vietnam and by the Viet Cong. So I just you know I it's hard to look at this and say that peace will you know will break out, you know, everywhere. I I think really what will happen is that one side or the other will just fold from exhaustion or boredom. And I can see Tr p folding from boredom. Um I can see the Russians folding from exhaustion, right?

Steve Davenport 8:22

Yeah, I mean I guess is it I mean this concept to me is is kind of like are you good or are you bad? I I don't really I thought there was like global peacekeeping forces that were injected into areas when peace broke out to help maintain that peace and to to allow you know the things to go back to normal. And yet I never hear about peacekeeping forces in Ukraine or Russia. I never hear about so can we do we just do we put a grade on it and say this is an A plus piece and this is a B piece? Or do we say this is 90% peace, 70% peace? Because when we say the word peace, I think of you know, like the the symbols and the the ideas, and we're all just kind of getting along as citizens of the world. Like, how do we measure peace?

Clem Miller 9:23

Well, it's a very subjective concept, so I don't think you can measure it. But you mentioned peacekeepers, and I think that one of the key things to keep in mind about peacekeeping is that peacekeeping is approved by the Security Council of the United Nations. And the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK all have veto power at the UN Security Council. So, you know, Russia can veto anything that happens with regard to peacekeeping involving involving itself, right?

Steve Davenport 9:59

Uh they don't have to take an absent vote when they're they're talking about themselves. Not at all. Not at all. Isn't that the way most boards work? That if anything involves me, I need to you know recuse myself from this discussion.

Clem Miller 10:17

You would think so. But but that isn't the way it works in international affairs. Uh and then and then you know the U.S. can veto things having to do with Israel and has in the past. So I think , you know, I I I think well, and then of course anything involving Iran might be vetoed by China and by Russia, or at least, you know, maybe Russia and China in some cases would abstain, possibly, right? I know in the past they may have abstained on some things, , but they can certainly veto them too. So I just don't see like a UN peacekeeping situation ever applying to these two conflicts. You know, they're more for areas, you know, like like more obscure African conflicts, you know, that kind of thing.

Steve Davenport 11:14

Okay, well, is there isn't there someone that says, you know, this treaty or this you know, this doc ent has declared this in place, and therefore, you know what I mean? This is like if you if you continue to fight and you're under a peace ceasefire, or like is that considered a war crime? What just having war war crime? If you're fighting a war while you're under this peace ceasefire agreement, is that a violation of no terms of no no war crimes now?

Clem Miller 11:50

We're getting into sort of a legalistic area, and I don't want to pretend that I'm an international lawyer, but my understanding, you know, but I'll I'll pretend for a moment that I'm an international lawyer. Uh you know, P war crimes are defined by the Geneva

When Wars End Through Exhaustion

Clem Miller 12:07

Conventions, right? And and so it's very tough to be , you know, there's a very narrow criteria for defining whether something is a war crime or not. Um, in fact, , you know, a lot of arg ents can be made as to whether what Israel did in Gaza was a war crime or not. Some people might say it was. I mean, look at all the devastation, it had to be a war crime, right? Um others would say, well, we gave warning to people to leave, you know, we gave ample warning, like a half an hour to leave your apartments or an hour to leave your apartments. Uh and and so that then doesn't constitute a war crime. Um, I think the reality is like a gray area between those two things. I mean, maybe some things they did weren't war crimes, and other things they did were war crimes. Um but it you know it's interesting, you know, if it's combat, I think the International Criminal Court has been reluctant to go after individuals for war crimes. So, for example, they went after Putin and you know, as a they indicted him at the International Criminal Court. And the reason they indicted him was not for invading Ukraine, they in they indicted him for all those actions to kidnap all the Ukrainian children and take them into Russia. That's what they actually indicted him for. So they found something that was clearly h anitarian in nature, and then that's what they indicted him for.

Steve Davenport 13:55

So, in a case where that school gets bombed and those children get killed in Iran, the fact that a war hasn't been declared, is it is it viewed as just an unnatural action by one country? Well, I would think qualify as war crime because no war has been declared?

Clem Miller 14:19

Any kind of crime like in the US or anywhere, right, really, has to be intentional, right? And so the question is did they intentionally hit that school?

unknown 14:32

Okay.

Clem Miller 14:33

Um, you know, there there's been some news out lately that you know they were acting on old intelligence, but that's not the same as saying that they intentionally went after a school.

Steve Davenport 14:42

Right. But my point is that they bombed as part of a series of aggressions against a country where it's they had not declared war on. Yeah, they're just you know kind of walking in the park one day and we say, hey, we're gonna do this.

Clem Miller 14:58

Yeah, and I don't think I don't think that constitutes a war crime. I think war crimes are.

Steve Davenport 15:03

But if they should if the Russians shoot down an airliner, that was considered, wasn't that one of those things that they said, hey, that should have been, you know, that should have been a crime because they they killed all these people in this airline and going over in Ukraine?

Clem Miller 15:22

Uh I don't know that they've determined intentionality on that,

Why UN Peacekeepers Won’t Arrive

Clem Miller 15:26

right? Um I mean, I think there's still, I mean, I haven't been following that rec you know recently. That was quite a long time ago. Uh but you know what I mean, right?

Steve Davenport 15:37

That there's yeah, I mean they're gonna think against another country that are you know innocent civilians in a commercial airline a military, you know, vehicle, right?

Clem Miller 15:48

I think it the I yeah, but clearly they shouldn't have done that. Clearly it was a bad thing to do. Clearly, there's some I would say that there's enough culpability to warrant civilian claims, right? Uh, against the Russian, against the Russian government, at least for providing the the missiles that were used, right? The question is, you know, who was using those missiles? Were were it were it was it d b d b boss rebels? Was it Russian troops? What were the circ stances? Were there military planes in the vicinity at the time? There's a lot of questions I think would come out of, you know, whether it was intentional or not. Another thing to remember is that back in 1988, I don't know if you remember this, Steve, but the the the Iranians, there was an Iranian aircraft that was shot down by the United States in the Gulf. It was an Iranian airliner and and US forces killed a you know quite you know a couple couple hundred at least you know innocent Iranians and possibly others who were flying over over the Gulf. And so, you know, that wasn't a war crime because I think it was, you know, they they mistook the airliner for a military jet, but the U.S. provided compensation to those to the families of those who were killed. So, you know, that was the result there, but okay.

Steve Davenport 17:19

I guess to to wrap it up, I guess, you know, I look at peace as black and white, and really peace is mostly gray. Is that how we should think about this? Because it doesn't seem like there is an process for defining some of these actions as either you know against peace or just part of the peace process.

Clem Miller 17:46

War breaks out, peace doesn't break out. Okay, but peace peace peace is something that comes out of exhaustion or boredom, right? I would think. And I I don't see the Iran I see the Iranians as being energized by what's happened. Uh I see I see the US, I see our government in the US being bored or demoralized, maybe, by by what's happened. I see I see Russia as getting increasingly exhausted. Right.

Steve Davenport 18:35

Okay, so let's let's end this with a n ber, since I I like n bers, a quant. Um so what percentage of peace exists in the two situations? And I'll start. How do you define it? How do you gotta define it? 100% peace is everyone is stopped fighting. There is no sign of any kind of damaging each other, sanctions or anything that is opposing the other country's free operation and free freedom to be , you know, a member of the global community. That's a hundred percent peace. We're at a hundred percent peace with England. I don't think, you know, we may have some sanctions or some things, but there's nothing threatening England and the United States. They're at 100% peace. I would say that the US and China is probably a little lower than that, maybe let's say 80% peace or 90% peace. Because they're not fighting each other, but there is quite a bit of turmoil underneath in terms of what we're doing and cyber actions and other things. And so I would say that Ukraine and Russia are at about 30% peace, which means that if the opposite of peace is complete fighting, I think there's some possibility that in some areas they've stopped fighting because they agree that those lines are going to be very hard to break. And those, you know, those boundaries or borders, they're they're okay with. They can't really move them, so they don't fight them. So I'd say there's something like 30% peace in you know the Russia Ukraine conflict, and I guess I would say there's 40 to 50 percent peace in Iran because it feels like we don't we're not having a ground war. Israel may have a ground war with , but I'm gonna say between the US and Iran, that we're not participating with our troops in the conflict with Hezbollah and Israel. So I think that's a separate entity. So I would say we're somewhere around 40 to 50 percent war because I think that it is supposed to be a we're in a ceasefire, and I think that we can easily stop fighting by not bombing, and and then we will be back to a ceasefire situation, which would be over 50 percent in the peace versus war continue. What do you think?

Clem Miller 21:20

Um well you're the quad. I don't look at things quite from a quad perspective, but well if it's at

War Crimes Intent And Gray Zones

Clem Miller 21:31

least digital, you yes or no? At least things of this nature. Um I think I think that like taking the the let's start with China first, right? We are we're in engaged in a kind of a technological rivalry with China now, and also a strategic rivalry that extends to to Taiwan. So I guess if you had to quantify, you said 80 or 90. i would have to say more like 70 okay i said 20 to 30 no china yeah with china i don't think we're at 80 to 90 means you're you're you're fighting and oh i thought yeah i thought 80 to 90 is peace no i'm saying yeah the peace side the let me say this again so peace is a hundred you know if you're at peace you're at zero a zero or a hundred zero get your n bers straight and a hundred you're fighting a violent war so oh okay so what did you say china was twenty to thirty okay so I would say if you're saying it's 20 war 20 to 30 percent war with China I would have to say that it's more like 40 percent war with China okay okay if you're Ukraine and Russia Ukraine and Russia if if if it's if you know if zero is war like then I would have to say if zero is total war then Ukraine and Russia I would have to say is like 10 percent okay okay I if maybe even lower five percent maybe total war although I although I don't quite understand the I don't quite understand the scale actually but I mean basically we're I think it's almost total war with regard to Ukraine and Russia. I think with regard to China there's sort of an underlying conflict which is mostly peace but you know some you know non-kinetic let's call it war I'm using that that fancy term non-kinetic right I think that Iran and the United States is it's not near it's not like a total war like you got with Russia and Ukraine. Uh but like you know as you pointed out there's no ground conflict yet between Iran and the U.S. And I doubt there will be so it's not peace but it's not war. I would say it's it's I mean clearly we're in a military conflict with Iran but it's it's not sort of an all-out war so it's it's more than what we've got with China and it's less than what you're seeing with with Ukraine and and Russia.

Steve Davenport 24:44

Ukraine and Russia is the is the epitome let's say of war right now yeah see I would disagree a little bit because I think that along certain fronts I don't think there's this conflict going on I think they're focused on certain areas that they want to control and it's a very controlled opposition to what they're trying to do and I think that you know Ukraine is trying to open up new fronts with these missiles into you know controlling the oil and controlling the the military factories but I I to me they're they're more like strategic than they are all out war. If it's all out war I would I think we would see a much bigger situation right now.

Clem Miller 25:32

I mean I'm listening to this NATO meeting and they're talking about peace breaking out momentarily so I don't know how you know your perception and my perception can be so different than the media because we're not getting the truth okay war is peace right like I said right I would also say just I think the Israel Hezbollah conflict is one that's closer to is closer to a Ukraine Russia situation. With you know much closer to total war than it is to to any kind of ambiguous war peace situation.

Steve Davenport 26:16

All right well thanks everybody for listening and we hope this helped clarify what's war what's peace and what's going on in the Middle East. So just remember Clems war is peace and mine that peace is peace is gray not black or white thanks everybody for listening and we hope you enjoy this