Peak Trump Or Just A Pause

Power peaks when attention outpaces achievement. That’s the lens we bring to a brisk year-end audit of 2025, asking whether the “big beautiful bill,” tariff bursts, and a flurry of executive actions represented durable progress or a loud crest without foundation. We weigh health optics, the slowdown in rallies, and how those signals affected confidence among GOP insiders, donors, and primary challengers. When allies start testing distance and new contenders emerge, the coalition is telling you where it thinks tomorrow lies.

We track how courts became the real venue for policy, tempering the impact of immigration raids and headline actions that generate heat but little measurable change. On markets, we unpack why investors priced the noise as risk rather than reward, reviving the idea that spectacle often ends in softer outcomes. The conversation turns practical where it counts: missed chances in LNG export capacity, permitting reform, and rare earths that could have strengthened supply chains, allies, and jobs for a decade. Tariffs against secondary suppliers like Vietnam may score points, but they don’t compound. Infrastructure and long-term contracts do.

Succession is the quiet story underneath. Berkshire’s planned handoff shows how durable institutions de-risk the future. Trumpworld, by contrast, offers no clear successor who can carry the brand’s energy into 2026. If Democrats gain in the midterms, pressure to hand off rises, but a rushed transition looks like retreat, not renewal. Our conclusion is sharp but fair: 2025 felt like peak Trump—not collapse, but a plateau where attention ran ahead of lasting impact. If there’s a second act, it will require coalition-building, measurable policy, and investment in assets that compound over time.

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Chapters

• 0:00 Setting The Stage For 2025
• 1:35 Defining “Peak Trump”
• 2:48 Health, Visibility, And Rally Drought
• 3:56 GOP Support Erodes And Fractures
• 6:35 Redistricting Fights And House Outlook
• 7:49 Markets Read The Chaos
• 9:43 Executive Power Versus Lasting Policy
• 11:40 Energy Missed Chances And Tariffs
• 13:04 Fentanyl Focus And Measurement Gaps
• 14:33 Midterms, Resignation Talk, And Vance
• 15:54 Buffett’s Succession Vs Trump’s Vacuum
• 17:04 Final Call: 2025 Was Peak Trump

Transcript

Steve Davenport: 0:50

Hello everyone, this is Steve Davenport, and I'm here with Skeptic's Guide to Investing and my partner Clem Miller. And today we're kind of recapping 2025. And as the fourth section of that, we are discussing peak Trump. Is the beginning of this year and all of the things that happened with the passing of the big beautiful bill and the tariffs and all of the things done in foreign policy? Have we seen the peak influence of Trump? And are we seeing a transition away or a weakening or an unhealthy stake for the GOP? I think that when we look at these issues, I think the end of 2025 feels a lot different than the beginning of 2025. And I think there was a lot of uncertainty and there was a lot of question marks and constitutionality of a lot of things. And I think as we've kind of gone through the year, we've kind of realized hey, these issues ultimately have to be determined by courts, and you have to disagree and kind of try to find a resolution. Um so Clem, has Trump peaked, or is he just is the current circumstances just a small b p in the road on a cool and failure-free Tr p in 26?

Clem Miller: 2:24

I really do think that Trump has peaked. I think Trump has peaked relatively recently. , I think that part of it has to do with his uncertain health situation. I mean, if you compare what Trump looks like now to what he looked like during his earlier administration, he's clearly less healthy, more aged than he was. , there are questions that are abundant about you know things like the MRI he took, about what's happening with his hand and his legs, and and and so you know the fact that he hasn't really done that much, you know, notwithstanding trying to get out in the field again, not being out much on rallies, which we know that emotionally he enjoys, , but he hasn't done much of that. So I think there's there's an health, there's definitely a health aspect to that. I think that his hold on the GOP, which has been immense, is beginning to is also beginning to erode. And I think that you know he is holding on only because he has some sycophants like Mike Johnson who are who are there to try to support him. , but you know, you've got some some you know supporters, former supporters, I guess, like Marjorie Taylor Green, , who have been you know putting some distance between themselves and Tr p on on things like the Epstein files and about you know affordability to use to use that catchphrase now. and I think that you know Marjorie Taylor Green, you know, who you know is you know has who has been a little bit on the I don't know what you want to say, what you want to call her, but but she's been a little bit on the unusual side in terms of the things she says, is is actually looking like she's a little bit more realistic and and saying things that make sense. So I I I think that that Marjorie Taylor Green and some of the others in that party, you have very interesting, you have Elise Stefanick, who you would think would be a a sure shoe-in for the governor of of New York. and instead there's another GOP candidate who's come in challenging her in the primary, who is not a Tr p person coming in to compete with her. And and then you see, so that's so you see some and and that erosion within the GOP support for Tr p. there are r ors about abundant about how some 20, 25 members of the GOP House might leave before even the midterm elections. And I saw one commentator say, and it makes a lot of sense, that you're gonna start seeing a lot of movement around the time that primary filings are due, you know, when you have to file in each state for primaries. And so we're gonna see, you know, we're gonna see some people who are currently in Congress not file. And that's gonna tell us a lot about what's going to happen , you know, during the year or in terms of in terms of the fall. I I think that you know, this whole effort by Tr p and some folks to to try to redistrict mid- cycle to get more seats. I think there's been a lot of democratic pushback to that with other states, you know, California trying to balance off what Texas is doing, and you know, Virginia now is talking about redistricting to add a whole bunch of Democratic seats. I just think that you know we're gonna see the Democrats take power. This is my guess in the House. in getting ahead of yourself. You're talking about Tr p peak, not Tr p. Well, but let's get back to the true. But but expectations about 2026 feed into Tr p peaking in 2025 because people look toward the future. And I think I think they don't see, I think a lot of people within the Republican Party are beginning to see a future without Tr p, and they're asking themselves who is best to replace Tr p. And I think within MAGA, you know, that large section of of the GOP, which you know supports Tr p, I I'm not sure there is a natural successor to him. Tr p is like Tr p is like Warren Buffett.

Steve Davenport: 7:57

Well, I was gonna make a correlation between Marjorie Taylor Green and Buffett, that they're one person's retiring after a very prestigious career and doing so with a lot of warning and a lot of preparation. And then we have Marjorie Taylor Green who just decided, hey, I've been on this Tr p train for a while, and now I'm getting off. And I'm getting off completely, and I'm taking out on the whole business, which I think is a different way to retire. But it's , you know, as we as we look at Tr p Peak, I think we could say accomplishment of the one big beautiful bill. I even think he was going to be able to pull those resources together and have enough trust with the margins he had. And he was able somehow, Johnson, a newbie who was really not experienced in in dealing with the full on you know coalition around getting all his votes in line, somehow he did it. And so, yes, I do think that Tr p peaked this year by doing a lot of things. He did a lot of things with immigration, the ice raids and the breaking up of some of these cities with National Guard security and his effort to try to satisfy what his campaign promises were. I'm not sure he satisfied the campaign promises, but he did, you know, he's pulled a lot of levers, he's touched a lot of buttons, and my idea would be he's probably done a few too many. But that's just my opinion. And I think from a standpoint of markets, I would say that people have viewed his activity as , you know, as the moniker says, the taco, the Tr p always caves, or what is it? Tr p always chickens out, chickens out. I I think that when we look at that, you don't get that kind of attention unless you're really upsetting people and doing something. And he's got a lot of attention, and I think that his desire for attention is is greater than his desire to accomplish.

Clem Miller: 10:16

Because ultimately, if he was his ability, his ability to accomplish.

Steve Davenport: 10:21

Yeah, I think it comes down to a desire to accomplish. Yeah, I think he has a desire for information to get out there and for him to be viewed and topics to be discussed, but I think that most of them kind of go by the wayside because there's not a real underlying feeling that he's gonna cooperate with the two sides of the House and the Senate to really make something happen that's gonna be permanent. I think he wants to make the ceremonial and the the the the changes that he can make with his presidential power, but the real power is in doing something together with the three branches. And I think that that's where this kind of you know the peak Tr p, I think, has happened because he's let it happen. I think he could have got a lot more things done in the energy space than he got done in the tariff space. I think we could be the supplier to Europe of LNG, the supplier to Japan of LNG. Our West Coast and our East Coast need to build terminals for LNG distribution outside the US. And if we did those things and focused on those things instead of tariffs to Vietnam, I think we might be a little better off. Has his focus on fentanyl helped? I don't think it's been a complete failure, but it hasn't been what we thought. I don't see the drug use rates in the U.S. going down. I don't see, you know, I can't measure how much, you know, how much in drugs has been destroyed in Venezuela with these attacks. , I think the fact that we're not measuring and the fact that we're not looking at these things in any other way, but a reaction and a use of power that might be called an abuse of power. So I think that you're seeing these things become more and more desperate as we get further away from the peak. And when he becomes less relevant, I think he feels a great deal of insecurity because he knows it's coming. You know, the the midterm election I said was going to be a big issue when Tr p was elected. I'll still say the midterm election is going to be a big issue.

Clem Miller: 12:50

So, Steve, so Steve, let me ask you a question. Let's say that as I would expect, the Democrats to do very well in the midterm elections. Will Tr p resign?

Steve Davenport: 13:05

Um, I don't know. I think it would be good for the party to have Vance in there for a year or two, and that way he'd be a much stronger candidate. From a political standpoint, yes, he should resign if what's good for the party. But I look over the last, you know, few years of the last year of his running in his election, and it's four years before, I haven't seen somebody who's really doing what he can. You know, I think he's done a lot for judges, , in terms of putting judges in position to influence, you know, future government. , but in terms of how he works with the party and how he does things for the future, I think I think he's failed to consider what's gonna happen. I told you that he had two good years and he should get what he could get done soon. He peaked, he got something done with his big, beautiful bill. But I'm not sure what else we're gonna look back on in 10, 20, 30 years and say, boy, wasn't it great in 2025 when he did, and they're gonna list three or four things. I don't know how many things they're gonna list.

Clem Miller: 14:15

People will have forgotten about them by then because many of them will be will face challenges in court and will be gone.

Steve Davenport: 14:27

I I think that might be true, but I also think that you know we've we've tried to bring business back to the U.S. I think we're you know we're gonna be stronger if we really are thoughtful about that. I think we'd be stronger if we had some government support in the U.S. for rare earth production. I think it's gonna be very hard to get it done unless the government does things to encourage more and more people to who have the technology to apply it here in the U.S. because the environmental regulations are going to be much harder to manage. Um, I I think there are things that he can do to regain his peak. But I think the path he's on right now is one of fear. And again, I look at the reaction of a Buffett retiring, and I think, boy, here's a guy who sees his future, sees his contribution, sees his past, and he's he's creating a transition that really is something as an example to others. He hired these investment guys three or four years ago, give them time to ramp up and get involved and understand the process at Berkshire. And I think he's selected some great leaders to follow up in the areas of insurance and general management of the companies. Um in contrast, Tr p, I don't think, realized that he had three years left, doesn't realize he's gonna have limited power potentially after the midterm. And so he's been running around trying to get things done with executive order. Not the most effective long-term solution. So therefore, I guess I'd say 2025 was peak Tr p. And I think we're gonna have to watch very carefully as we walk into the midterms. I don't see the midterms being anything but a confirmation that there's an there's people who are unhappy with Tr p. And those middle voters, not really the core Democrats, because I think the core Democrats still don't know what their core is. I think there's gonna be middle of the road people who might have voted for Tr p because of the big beautiful bill and the idea of taxes staying the same. And now I think those people are gonna move on to other candidates and try to make sure that their interests are preserved longer term. And I have , you know, the presidency of executive order continue. Do you have any final thoughts? Nope. Nope. Come on, Clam. All right, everybody, Skeptics Guy, thanks for listening. Um, we got one more coming up on the Fed and how the Fed influenced things in recapping 2025. Thanks for listening, and please share with others.