Embark with us on a financial expedition through Asian markets. We are joined by Dr. James Thorne of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, who guides us through a landscape rich with both promise and peril.
We evaluate how Japan's strategic regional alliance with the U.S. and Australia, plus the sustained market reform tailwind from the Three Arrows of Abenomics, opens up new investment opportunities with Japanese firms. We also briefly consider India’s opportunities.
We consider, by contrast, how China’s Communist Party ideology, plus China-U.S. trade and technology tensions, has limited the returns investors can reap from investing in Chinese stocks.
We then turn to Taiwan, whose Taiwan Semiconductor fabricates many of the world’s most advanced chips, including those supporting the new world of AI.
As tensions simmer across the Taiwan Strait, we align with the view that outright warfare is an unlikely prospect—yet the specter of conflict looms, with potential to unsettle markets worldwide.
We scrutinize Taiwan’s informal regional security alliances and the strategic prowess of Taiwan's defenses, which stand as a bulwark against aggression.
Beyond the immediate horizon, we ponder Asia's broader geopolitical and economic risks, the potential for internal upheaval within China, and the ramifications of debt entanglement among global superpowers.
Join Clem Miller and Steve Davenport, alongside Dr. Thorne, as we navigate the intricate interplay of military might, economic interconnectedness, and the catalysts that could ignite a shift in the Asia-Pacific region.
Embark with us on a financial expedition through Asian markets. We are joined by Dr. James Thorne of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, who guides us through a landscape rich with both promise and peril.
We evaluate how Japan's strategic regional alliance with the U.S. and Australia, plus the sustained market reform tailwind from the Three Arrows of Abenomics, opens up new investment opportunities with Japanese firms. We also briefly consider India’s opportunities.
We consider, by contrast, how China’s Communist Party ideology, plus China-U.S. trade and technology tensions, has limited the returns investors can reap from investing in Chinese stocks.
We then turn to Taiwan, whose Taiwan Semiconductor fabricates many of the world’s most advanced chips, including those supporting the new world of AI.
As tensions simmer across the Taiwan Strait, we align with the view that outright warfare is an unlikely prospect—yet the specter of conflict looms, with potential to unsettle markets worldwide.
We scrutinize Taiwan’s informal regional security alliances and the strategic prowess of Taiwan's defenses, which stand as a bulwark against aggression.
Beyond the immediate horizon, we ponder Asia's broader geopolitical and economic risks, the potential for internal upheaval within China, and the ramifications of debt entanglement among global superpowers.
Join Clem Miller and Steve Davenport, alongside Dr. Thorne, as we navigate the intricate interplay of military might, economic interconnectedness, and the catalysts that could ignite a shift in the Asia-Pacific region.
Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None
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Steve Davenport:
Hello again. This is Steve Davenport, coming to you from Skeptic's Guide to Investing. I'm here with my co-host, Clem Miller, and also a guest today, Dr James Thorne. James is a chief strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth in Canada. He offers us a perspective on economics that we are surely lacking on the science or the sorcery of predicting the future. So I want to start. Today's podcast is about Asia investing in Asia. What are the risks, what are the opportunities and how do we take advantage of them? So, James, when I think about your portfolio, or portfolios you recommend for clients, how big a part does Asia play? Why and where do you see the pitfalls in terms of opportunities over the next two or three years in the Asia markets?
Dr James Thorne:
in the Asia markets. So, on a secular, structural basis, I think Japan is very interesting because I honestly think that, in a world of proxy wars, I think that the agreements that President Biden has made with Japan in terms of the transference of knowledge and the flow of capital going into Japan is really going to set Japan into a lost decade because of the extreme levels of debt and the heavily reliance on real estate. But then again, and going back to Clem's theme, clem's theme on on stock selection, you know we have to be honest with ourselves and suggest that the, the skilled labor force in Asia, specifically in Taiwan and South Korea, cannot get replicated in the United States or North America. I'll put it that way in the United States or North America, I'll put it that way, and so you know, and until proven otherwise, I think you know, Taiwan is going to be the center of this innovative push into AI and crypto and all of that.
Dr James Thorne:
So I think, on a selective basis, I think there are great companies in Taiwan that you would want to. You want to consider at TSMC, if you want to, in South Korea. You want to go in there and look at Samsung instead of Micron in the United States. Ok, but I do really think that the narrative that people are missing is the fact that in a world of proxy wars, where you've got China saddling up beside Russia, I think it's very interesting that you know the relationship between the United States and Japan are getting tighter, so I'll push it back to you on that, steve.
Steve Davenport:
Oh, I like that. We were talking, Clement and I, the other day, about how this agreement seems to have gone under the radar with the US, Japan and Australia of a new military alliance, and I think that it's like everything in the media, some things are significant and others are not, and I look at that and say that's a pretty big statement when you try to look at all the things that are going on in the world, and our focus on Asia is in working with our allies and strengthening that military aspect. I still believe, as you said, as we talked about with Germany in our other podcast, japan has been pacifist somewhat culturally, but also because it's pretty good financially for them as a country when they don't spend as much on defense, it allows for more spending in other parts of the economy. So I guess the one issue that I think or idea that you brought up, is this idea of immigration and how do we transfer capabilities from one country to another.
Steve Davenport:
I listened to a podcast yesterday where they talked about the fact that, when you look at what's happening, taiwan, semi and others are figuring out how their machines could be locked down if there were an act of aggression and not utilized by a country who came in and took over. So I think that people are getting ready for a Taiwan event and I think the idea that if China took over those machinery and couldn't utilize them, and the company could lock down and deny access is a very interesting. You know, an asset can be in a country, but if an asset can't be utilized, is it really an asset? So, clem, what do you think is happening in Asia in terms of an opportunity, or is it an avoid versus a hold or a buy?
Clem Miller:
So, Steve and Jim, I think it's a very nuanced situation. There is one stock in particular that I hold, and that again is Taiwan Semiconductor TSMC, and I hold that one because it has a virtual monopoly on the GPU type chips, especially those that are more advanced, from NVIDIA. Nvidia contracts all of its production out to TSMC. The risk, however, with TSMC is that of a Chinese invasion One. There's a theory that TSMC provides sort of a silicon shield and that China won't invade Taiwan because TSMC is there. I don't agree with that, but I do think that China will undertake efforts, if there is some military action, to try to avoid destroying TSMC. Also they might decide to deactivate itself per some of the things that you said, but I do invest in TSMC because of this kind of monopoly position that it holds.
Clem Miller:
When you move beyond TSMC, I do like Japan and I do like India. With regard to Japan, I hold an ETF which is in my personal portfolio. Again, we're not recommending individual stocks or ETFs on this broadcast, but I'm just telling you what I hold in my own portfolio. So I hold a currency hedged Japan ETF, and the reason I hold that rather than individual companies is because I think that it's very difficult for somebody not Japan and then invested equal amounts in all five Japanese major trading companies. So I'm sort of doing that in a similar way by investing in this Japan ETF. I'll say two more things.
Steve Davenport:
How is ?
Clem Miller:
What Buffett, it was equal weight. Oh, it's, the ETF is typical ETF market cap weight, so much more heavily in, for example, toyota than in others. But Japan is a fairly diversified economy, so it's not like there's one dominant, one dominant stock. So just two things I'll note about Japan. In terms of the demographic issue, while that's an issue for Japan and Japanese production, Japanese companies have taken major strides with respect to robotics, and also they have done overseas production, so a lot of these Japanese companies produce overseas, and so the fact that Japan is having the country itself is having demographic issues has less of an effect on the company's profitability per se. So then, the last thing I'd say about Japan is that Japan still has a tailwind from the Shinzo Abe Abe-nomics reforms, and so they're benefiting from that. So I'm very optimistic about Japan.
Clem Miller:
I'm also optimistic about India. I hold the MSCI India ETF and there again, I hold this because I don't feel like I can distinguish among individual Indian stocks, but I'm very optimistic about India's medium-term and long-term economic prospects. Medium-term and long-term economic prospects there's a deepening capital market in India, which should be good for stocks in India, and I will say that another reason to hold the ETF is because it's awfully difficult for investors, even institutional investors, to be able to invest in individual Indian stocks. They have a series of legal rules there. Finally, as many listeners of this podcast know, I have a particular bugaboo about China.
Clem Miller:
I hold no China stocks. I invest in stocks in Europe and the US which have sales in China, but I do not invest in China stocks per se. I believe that there's too much ongoing government intervention into the workings, especially of the Internet platform stocks stocks Too much intervention. It's affected their profitability and their ability to generate share price movement, positive share price movement. And also I find it challenging to be positive about Chinese stocks in the presence of export controls, us export controls and trade barriers and general tensions between the US and China. So those are my comments regarding Asia.
Steve Davenport:
I'd like to try to get a little more tangible in this space because I've been looking at and we've decided not to own Taiwan Semi. Because we think there is too much China risk In our portfolios at Circa, we're not using Taiwan Semi. I have felt for a while that there's a lot of saber rattling and there's a lot of indications from China about how they control Taiwan, but in the end Taiwan keeps operating and the world keeps turning and I guess I'd like to know from you two what's the probability of there being some active aggression from China towards Taiwan. Is it 25%? Is it 50%? Let's say I gave you the next five years?
Steve Davenport:
Will we have an event and if so, will it? We know what Taiwan semi means to the semiconductor market and we know what the semiconductor market means to the semiconductor market and we know what the semiconductor market needs to technology. To me, when that third rail gets touched, there's going to be quite a charge that goes through markets and I just can you estimate or dimension what you think the downfall would be from the markets in Canada and the US for an invasion and what's the probability of an invasion of Taiwan or some type of control of Taiwan from China?
Dr James Thorne:
James, Well, theoretically speaking, right, we know that the Chinese feel that it's part of their country, right? I think the other interesting thing is I'm old enough to have met people who grew up in Taiwan that were fluent in Japanese, because it was occupied by the Japanese. I, I I'm going to defer to a gentleman named George Friedman and and I'll anchor off of him, and he basically says that, you know, there's, there's not going to be a conflict over the in the next five years, and I, I tend to agree with that. The way I frame it in my mind is look, there's so much debt and there's so much that needs to be done domestically within the United States and China, canada and Europe to basically deal with the excessive levels of debt. That, in my world I frame it is that there's going to be detente for at least five years until we get through all of these issues.
Dr James Thorne:
And so will they use the sable rattling to, you know, to keep the domestic folks integrated and involved? Will politicians, you know like, think about it? You know, nancy Pelosi flew to Taiwan, right? I mean, will they use this for political maneuvering? Sure, but I just don't see it, over the next five years, anything substantially happening. And I think if China would attempt to invade Taiwan, I think the Americans have the might to basically repel it, and I just don't think China wants to get into a war with the United States right now. But if it did happen, Steve, it's a major geopolitical event. I mean, it's a major major. You know, financial markets around the world would reverberate from something like that and it's a severe risk which I just don't think people are willing to take right now.
Steve Davenport:
Yeah, I like to think of. The people are practical and they don't have the money for a war. They won't spend on a war. But history has kind of shown something different when countries become desperate, or when countries feel like they're losing the messaging or losing the, I think Xi would love to end his career as president and say I was the one who brought back Hong Kong, I was the one who brought back Taiwan into the mother country, and I think it's as much about ego as it is about finances.
Dr James Thorne:
Right and Steve. What I would add with that is and I go back to Taiwan, semi and the fact that can we replicate over here in North America what they have in Taiwan, and if we can replicate it, then Taiwan does not ceases to become a strategic asset. If we cannot replicate what's in Taiwan, in the United States, then I suggest that, given where we're going in terms of the digital economy and AI and I think Clem talked about how TSMC is at the center, the fulcrum of AI and GPUs then I just don't. I think that you know there will be significant Western support for keeping Taiwan independent.
Steve Davenport:
What do you think, Clem?
Clem Miller:
I agree with everything that Jim said. I would just add a what I think is a very key point, which is that in all of this discussion about Russia and Ukraine being sort of an analogy or a precursor to what might happen with China and Taiwan, there's one point that's missing from that equation, and that is that China and Ukraine have a land border and China I mean Russia and Ukraine have a land border. China and Taiwan have a pretty wide and very choppy, by the way, straight in between them. That's going to make it quite difficult for Chinese forces to attack Taiwan. Also, the landing spots that Chinese forces have on Taiwan are very limited.
Clem Miller:
I saw a map recently which showed that really there are only a few spots, sort of choke points, along the Taiwanese western coast where Chinese forces can land, and those are easily defensible. And then also the fact that Taiwan is so mountainous that Taiwanese troops, if necessary, could retreat to the hills and fight what amounts to a guerrilla war, guerrilla warfare against Chinese forces, should they be able to establish a toehold on the island. So, honestly, I think five years yeah, I don't think anything's going to happen in five years. Could it happen eventually? Sure. Could it happen eventually? Sure, if China develops enough forces. But a lot of this also depends on what we were talking about with regard to the Japan-Australia alliance, into which you can throw in the UK, sometimes you can throw in Canada, and sometimes you can even throw in India, and, believe me, there's got to be some kind of cooperation between this group of countries and Taiwan.
Dr James Thorne:
Can I just add one thing, guys, and this goes back to a book I read by a gentleman named Chalmers Johnson. I got hooked on this. You guys know I lived in Annapolis or the DC area, which is where the, the Naval Academy is, and you know. The question is you know why does? In downtown Annapolis we have so many great sushi restaurants? And it's because when you become a mid and you graduate, you typically go to Okinawa, right and and and.
Dr James Thorne:
So what is Chalmers Johnson talking about with regards to the relationship between the United States and Japan is and I'm going to put a number out, and it's wrong, but there's a significant, double digit number of military naval bases in Okinawa, and I would suggest you look at where that island is relative to the South China Sea. Look at where that island is relative to the South China Sea. And look, I've known you guys long enough to know about when they started building, when China started building the islands right in the middle of the South China Sea, and we've also had long discussions about Kissinger's book, about how China doesn't use chess as a game of strategy. They go china doesn't want to be surrounded, so do we do we take? Is china just emulating its traditional defensive measure, right, and doing what they're doing, or are they? Have they changed and are they becoming an offensive military power?
Dr James Thorne:
I that that that's what the question mark. But what I think people need to understand, or at least where I frame it, is there is a significant presence in the US military on Okinawa, which is just, it's not that far away, not that far away from Taiwan. So I think, for now, I think everything is okay. But you know, steve, you ask is it 10, 15, 20 in my lifetime? Anything's possible in a lifetime and of course there are possibilities of political missteps, right, and to get into the situation. I just think right now it is too important as a strategic asset for the United States that the safety of Taiwan is ensured for the time being. That's my narrative. I have nothing more than I have no insight into this. But it's just for me, reading books and doing what I do.
Clem Miller:
Yeah let's not so let's not forget, let's not forget that China also benefits a lot from Taiwan already, because a lot of those TSMC chips are manufactured on behalf of Chinese companies and there's a lot of other trade between China and Taiwan, like, for example, apple handsets and other things, sets and other things. So there would be a major I mean, apart from just, you know, a depletion of military resources on China's part there would be economic conflict that might affect the Chinese mainland, the Chinese citizenry. And you know the one thing, the one thing that you know China is not a democracy, but it's not. Even though China is not a democracy, it's still responsive to unrest at the popular level in China. And so if you have economic problems, serious economic problems, that result from a conflict with Taiwan, you know that could impact the popularity of the regime, and so you know Xi might know that and anticipate that and and, as a result, perhaps not invade Taiwan because of that fear.
Dr James Thorne:
Because of that fear. Yeah, I would add, is to me it's also I think there's been some great research coming out of the Council of Foreign Relations on this in terms of questioning the term globalization and actually identifying. Look, it's not globalization, it's called regionalization. The only economy in the world that really globalization works is the United States, because the United States has ceased to basically fully integrate with Mexico and Canada, but China is integrative, fully into, if you look at the trading block of Asia as we speak. So, you know, do they move things around to get around you know, tariffs and whatnot? I don't know.
Dr James Thorne:
But I think the interesting thing for me is when you parse it that way and you've got such a respected institution as the CFR coming out and providing clarity to the situation.
Dr James Thorne:
I think and this goes back to our comments on Japan I don't know how much the Japan carry trade has financed the real estate market in China, like, what are the linkages between, you know, the cheap money and the zero interest rate regime of the BOJ and then financing the real estate market? What are the intricacies, what are the tests, the interconnectedness between all of these Asian economies? And suffice to say, I think, because of that level of debt being so high, in the fact that you know Xi is now, in his policies, timely to attack at least you know the excessive urbanization in China. But I think we've got a period of time of everybody's going to calm down and we're going to try to work our way and work our way out of this debt mess, and that's how I view it. But I still I do not think that China is as isolated as some politicians make us believe they are.
Steve Davenport:
No, I believe that your points are wrong. In terms of a positive scenario, I'm a little bit skeptical, so I tend to go towards the possibility for a mistake, the possibility for a mistake. And I saw the recent, the assassination in Japan, the assassination recently in Europe. I wonder sometimes whether there's a chance for some event that we're not expecting, which is that black swan type that could cause us to suddenly see a flare up in Asia and China not wanting to look weak and also having unrest at home. I'm not sure.
Steve Davenport:
I agree with Clem that unrest at home means that they don't act in Taiwan. I think it's a good distractionary tactic to move the people towards this nationalistic ideal, move the people towards this nationalistic ideal, and I think that we've still got this. You know, leader in North Korea, that I don't think anybody has a real eye towards what's going to happen there. I see something you know unexpected. You know North Korea tries to launch something against Japan and you know everyone has to react, everyone has to line up behind their partners so yeah, I, I steve, I'm gonna, I'm gonna invoke brzezinski, zygmunt brzezinski, to show the table I don't think.
Dr James Thorne:
I just don't think. China, I mean, the thing I find interesting about china is they don't have free capital flows and they they're not free floating the renminbi or the yuan. And so I suggest that I think I hear you and I think you know, as investors, and if we talk about it, it's you know what is the, what is your strategy, if, as and when you know a flare up, if China does invade Taiwan, I think we all have to have contingencies, and that's what investing in portfolio management is all about. But I just don't think. Look, I mean, let's be honest here. The United States needs to finance its debt, and two of the largest purchasers of its debt is Japan and China. Let's just be honest about that.
Dr James Thorne:
We're in a period of fiscal dominance, just like we were in post-World War II, and so I think, after the next four years, when the United States has to refinance its debt and guys, I will come down on I do not believe this hire for longer facade that we get from central banks I think Waller is totally misplaced. Let's just look at Target's numbers this morning. Ok, the private sector is buckling and we have excessive amounts of debt. And oh, by the way, either Japan, europe and China purchases the US debt or we go into debt monetization. So this foray into modern monetary theory by the progressive left in Canada and the United States and maybe and let's throw Europe in there to me is over. There is no free lunch. So the way I frame that more specifically is we get a detente, is we got to refinance this debt. And we can't refinance this debt when the Fed funds rates at 350. We have a yield curve in the United States, the longest inversion ever and the deepest inversion ever. And, guys, 25 basis points is not going to un-invert the yield curve and so the oxygen to the private sector even if they cut 50, is not going to get it in.
Dr James Thorne:
Look, there's real estate. I mean, talk to folks on the ground. I talked to somebody in Philadelphia the other day. Right, construction is gone, there's nothing there. Or let's use it if we'll go back to our previous employee when our band was back together. Right, there's no files. Getting through senior loan, like investing or banking, is a volume business. Right, you borrow short and you lend long, and it doesn't last when you have an inverted yield curve. So that's where I come down and sit there and go. That's to me the gating factor now, steve and Clem. But once we get through this and we finance all this paper and everybody's happy and they got another five years, then all hell could break loose right? And that's kind of how I'm framing it, yeah.
Steve Davenport:
I mean, I love to think that we have our finances and we are more economic animals than we are political animals, but I'm not sure that history is going to tell us that. I think that when we look at messages and stories as you talk about, I see the story being that China wants to be number one in the world. They want to be the number one world economy. Their involvement with Iran, their involvement with Russia, their involvement with any country who will help them build the road, is not really going to ultimately drive their decision making. I feel that the China nation wants to unify and wants to have one ideal, and that is that they are the chosen ones.
Steve Davenport:
It's amazing to me how similar they are to Japan in this idea. They don't allow immigration, they don't have a feeling that they need other cultures to be a strong country, and I think that's their biggest weakness, because they don't take the inputs that could come from other countries and people coming to their and making their country stronger. The United States does, and in all of its immigration mistakes it's still more open than it's still been, a key part of why we're so dynamic and why our growth rate has continued to maintain, while other countries with a more closed economy will not. I believe you're right, james, that we need to deal with the debt. I'm just a little bit um less sure of our political will and I'm a little less skeptical on the uh ability of our leaders to do that.
Dr James Thorne:
So in a, in a presidential, from a, from afar, sitting here on lake ontario looking into the states. It's kind of it's. I love it because it's like I would be. I'm at a party back in college, sitting at the side watching it all go down right, and what I would say to you that I find, in a presidential election year, that I think the nuance that is that is so impressive about, about what's going on in DC, I mean there's a lot about, there's a lot of problems, but irrespective of whether you like Mr Biden or Mr Trump and let's leave them aside one of the things that has happened is that there isa unified industrial policy to focus on China and to focus on making sure that the United States is unified, irrespective of the political party, towards China.
Dr James Thorne:
I think the Biden administration engaging in Japan is just an additional layer that really started I can't remember if it was you or Clem talked about, you know, the Abe and the Arabs, right? I mean, we worked together when that all came down. Japan is still using a constitution that was written by MacArthur after World War II, right? So hey, you know, let's make if we're going to play a world of proxy wars, let's make Japan an offensive military power and let them basically patrol the South China Sea. China has a long memory about the wars that it has fought with Japan, right, and so I think it's going to be very so, guys. I am very bullish on risk assets up until the end of this decade, and you can see the underlying is. The gating factor is we all have to refinance the debt at lower rates. We all have the same problem. Once that happens, I think the 2030s are going to be really, really, really, really interesting. That's my two cents. Mike GREEN, that's nice, I like it Interesting, clem, do you feel?
Steve Davenport:
Let's wrap it up here how do you feel about Asia and what would have to change to make it more attractive to you in terms of having more faith in the company's ability to execute in an environment where China is being? You know, if we were to start to see a relaxation of some of the tariffs, what is it going to take for you to become bullish on China?
Clem Miller:
Hard to see at this point, but I would say that you would need an ideological sea change in how the Chinese government, and specifically the CCP Chinese Communist Party, you know views its role vis-a-vis companies in China. There'd have to be a tremendous sea change in terms of how they look at things like data, how they look at things like, you know, control over information, how they look at, you know what companies can do in terms of their ability to work overseas, the ability of foreign companies to work unfettered in China, of foreign companies to work unfettered in China. We don't have any of that. It's a very, very ideologically infused system that impacts investments and returns on investments and you've seen that over the last 10 years, essentially, especially over the last five years, over the last 10 years, it's flat.
Clem Miller:
You wouldn't have made any money in China. Over the last five years. You would have lost money. Compare that to the rest of the world where you would have made a lot of money, where you would have made a lot of money. I mean, there's just no, there's no. I have no faith right now in the ability to to make more money in uh in China, or even to make the same amount of money in China, as you would in uh in other parts of the world, including, by the way, europe. I think, uh, I think Europe offers better opportunities, uh right now, uh now, than China does. So I think there would have to be a major change in the ideological perspective that the Chinese government takes towards their companies.
Steve Davenport:
James, are we missing anything in the Asia region that we should be thinking of? That we're probably not, because we are overwhelmed by China's presence in all these areas. Or is buying exposure to US companies, who have some demand coming from Asia, enough for investors to get the exposure they need?
Dr James Thorne:
Oh, I think, long term, clem's absolutely right, but I just don't think we should discount the fact that traders and hedge funds wouldn't gun the K-Web right, which is the China Internet ETF and you know, to try to get returns. I mean, think about it, guys. I mean the S&P is about, you know, 5,400, about to touch hit 5,400. Wilson, a perma bear is basically just thrown in the towel. We have yet to get to the FOMO stage, right, and you know as well as I do fundamentals from our perspective, our shared perspective, fundamentals only go so far until you're underperforming your benchmark and you've got to generate performance. So, long-term, I am completely in agreement with what Clem's saying about China. But short-term, could the K-web go up 100%? Short-term? I'm not saying could it go just like the same thing happened in Japan right After the in the 90s? You had these massive rallies in the Nikkei and then it went back down. But for the long-term, I think China is uninvestable for all the reasons that Clem talked about.
Steve Davenport:
All right, that seems like a good spot to end it. I appreciate what you guys have been doing today. I really like the insights. I think they help investors and I think they help people understand what we're talking about, what are the risks and what are the opportunities. So thanks Dr Thorne, thanks Clem, and we look forward to providing more podcasts here at Skeptics that are going to help you to realize your investment IQ. So thanks a lot, people and look forward to next time. Thanks,